The real estate market continues its perplexing dance. On one hand, we see reports of million-dollar homes changing hands in upstate New York. On the other, whispers of an affordability crisis echo across the nation, particularly in places like New Hampshire. What's going on? Let's dive into the numbers and see if we can make sense of the apparent contradictions.
Onondaga County, New York, recently saw a flurry of home sales, with two properties topping the million-dollar mark. A lakefront home in Skaneateles sold for $1,239,750, while a property in Cicero went for $1,150,000. These aren't just houses; they're statements. But are they representative of the broader market? Probably not. High-end sales often operate in their own micro-economy, insulated from the pressures faced by average buyers. $1M+ for Skaneateles, Cicero homes: Plus 135 more Onondaga County home sales
Meanwhile, in New Hampshire, the median home price has jumped 4.5% since last October, settling at just under $528,000. That’s a significant increase, especially when coupled with the state's affordability index of 60. (For context, an index below 100 means the median household income isn't sufficient to afford a median-priced home.) This paints a starkly different picture than the luxury sales in New York. We're not talking about lakefront views; we're talking about basic affordability.
The New Hampshire Realtors are pointing fingers at an inventory crisis. According to Dave Cummings, vice president of communications, "We simply don't have enough homes on the market in the state." Basic supply and demand. However, that doesn't fully explain why "somehow a lot of buyers are still making it work," as Barry Warhola of Monument Mortgage notes. Are they stretching their budgets to the breaking point? Taking on more debt than is wise? Or are other factors at play, masking the true strain on affordability? It's tough to say for sure without digging deeper into buyer demographics and financing trends, but my analysis suggests a combination of all three.
Realtor Tommy Bolduc predicts a potential surge in activity come spring of 2026 if interest rates drop. He doesn't foresee a market crash, but rather a "heating up." This is a crucial point. Lower interest rates could inject much-needed oxygen into the market, potentially easing the affordability crunch. But it's a double-edged sword. Increased demand, fueled by lower rates, could further deplete already scarce inventory, driving prices even higher.
And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling. The New Hampshire report also indicates that sales indicators like the number of sales, days on market, and inventory have all gone up. If inventory is increasing, why is there still an affordability crisis? It's a discrepancy that warrants further investigation. Perhaps the "uptick in inventory," as Cummings calls it, isn't enough to offset the overall demand. Or maybe the new listings are primarily in the higher price brackets, doing little to alleviate the pressure on affordable housing.
It's like trying to fill a bathtub with a leaky faucet while someone else is pulling the plug. You might see some increase in the water level, but the underlying problem persists.
It's important to note that realtors, by their very nature, tend to be optimistic about the market. Their livelihood depends on transactions, so it's rare to hear them predict doom and gloom. Bolduc's assertion that the market isn't going to crash should be taken with a grain of salt. It's not necessarily a deliberate attempt to mislead, but rather a reflection of their vested interest in a healthy market.
That said, his point about a potential "heating up" in spring 2026 is worth considering. The market is a complex beast, influenced by a multitude of factors. Interest rates, inventory levels, economic growth, and consumer confidence all play a role. Predicting its future with certainty is a fool's errand. What we can do is analyze the available data, identify potential trends, and prepare for a range of possible outcomes.
The housing market isn't collapsing, but it's far from stable. Luxury sales are masking deeper affordability issues. Interest rate fluctuations are poised to amplify existing imbalances. And realtor optimism should be viewed through a skeptical lens. Brace yourselves; the ride's not over.
